Surprisingly high growth of industrial production
Surprisingly positive and clearly above analysts’ expectations were the industrial production data in September.
According to the Central Statistical Office (GUS), the value of sold industrial production was 9.8 per cent higher than in the same period last year. Compared to the current month, the growth rate was only slightly lower. 27 out of 34 industry groups recorded growth, led by the automotive sector (46.5 per cent), which is attributed to the easing of the microprocessor supply situation. Among the sectors that registered the biggest decline in production were the chemical industry with 9.7 per cent and the wood processing industry with 7.5 per cent. The high growth result, which is clearly above the trends in other EU countries, is attributed in analysts’ comments to the high flexibility of Polish industry, which means that the effects of the recessionary phenomena in the German economy on the individual industrial sectors in Poland are not as negative as was the case in the past.
In the current PMI business index, companies rate their order situation and business climate clearly negatively. Consumer sentiment has also deteriorated significantly. Against the backdrop of high inflation, money is being held back and spending is being cut. Retail sales in September were 2.8 per cent lower in fixed prices than in the previous month. This trend is expected to continue in the coming months.
Source: Wirtschafts-Markt Polen (15-2022 Issue 319)
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